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Seven years ago, it took just a short phrase to ignite a Labour conference demonstrating Labour was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. While not precisely stirring rhetoric, the words met with rapturous applause as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his addresses having such an effect. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". But context is everything.

In that deeply polarized period in 2018, straying from the prepared script in this way was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in working-class seats over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.

The Shift in Position and Closed Debates

Since then, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue was resolved by the previous year’s general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” commitments that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, despite polling evidence suggests many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.

A Lid That Rattles on Europe

However, it’s now Starmer is now to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if Europe may not be the boiling pot of British politics, the cap that has been kept firmly shut for five years is beginning to rattle once more.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool to criticize the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and remains his sole political accomplishment.

Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has left Britain with a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, towers over the minor adjustments thus far implemented by the government. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal agreed with Brussels in 2024 offers economic benefits quantified in low decimal points.

Cabinet Divergence and Bolder Ideas

Rachel Reeves is one of those attempting to bypass long-standing interior ministry opposition to an expansive version designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme by which young people can move between the UK and the EU for work or study.

David Lammy has pondered publicly regarding the clear advantages of being in a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, last week voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.

Although the Europe minister, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, now present at every cabinet meeting, insists the red lines remain unchanged, there exist avenues to work around them. A proposal involves declaring the commencement of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after Labour won a new electoral mandate.

The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts

Yet, Starmer has most recently damping it all down again by warning rejoining a European customs area could undermine the trade pacts with the US, which he views as key accomplishments of his premiership.

It is understood that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. First, he thinks a customs pact is now significantly more difficult because his ministers actively diverging from European rules in numerous sectors, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain to join a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse in talks has led British officials that former EU partners have little interest in offering favorable terms to the UK than in proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by Moscow, is viewed by some influential figures in Downing Street as grounds for the UK to maintain distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Document and Geopolitical Considerations

This strange and concerning document claims Europe is threatened by cultural extinction because of immigration. It contains only one reference to Britain, found on a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in our politics to foster the rise of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from deciding that this makes the US an unreliable partner, the government reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe would destabilise geopolitics further by endangering precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation and The Echo from the Past

This situation brings us back to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not an attempt to become leader but simply an effort to preserve the possibility of remain in a future vote. In fact, in those days, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within Downing Street note that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would stand for the leadership, is among a clutch of cabinet ministers signaling they want to go further on Europe.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a contest for the top job, insist she won’t discuss her stance on a customs union because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Clear Risk and A Wise Reminder

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be wise of him to remember the impact that a short phrase had for him seven years ago. There are options for a major proposal on EU relations that the prime minister ought to consider; he should explore them personally, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.